Pages: 142-156
Published: 30.05.2018
Abstract: In the article the situation of uncertainty is considered in business, when it is impossible neither to know probability nor logically to show out her, calculate or objectively estimate.. Determination of uncertainty and new interpretation is used the probabilities (as degrees of reasonable faith that we add to expression at the exactly fixed data) set forth by Nobel laureate in the economy of J. M. Keynes. The model of rational behavior of subject-businessman is described in the situation of uncertainty. The model №1 of calculation of n subjective probabilities is worked out by the businessman for application in business at the estimation of the expected profits from the projects realized in different business-environments.Description over of "operating chart of translation of degree of the confidence in a numerical form", applied by a subject-businessman for the worked out new algorithm of calculation of subjective probabilities, is brought, in particular, for the receipt of profits in the n projects realized in m independent business-environments. At the design of rational form of presentation of preferences of subject the axioms of L. Savage are executed. Operating chart (she uses the ground driven to the reference book on the applied statistics of the stages of attaching significance of probabilities for every examined event of Оj from the finite set of unjoint (mutually-exclusive) events О1,О2,...,Оn. An example of application of model № 1 of calculation of subjective probabilities, showing a model fitness in the real situations in business, is made. Possibility of calculation of the expected values of profits from realization of business-projects is main dignity of the model.
Key words: subjective probability, subjective beliefs, business-environment, projects
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